By Brazil Stock Guide — Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) closed the third quarter of 2026 with record oil and gas production, exports, and diesel output. The Brazilian state-controlled energy company produced 3.512 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), up 11.7% from a year earlier and 5.3% from the previous quarter. The strong operational performance, however, came with a contrasting trend in foreign trade: imports of crude oil and refined products more than doubled from the second quarter, reducing the company’s net export balance by 14.6%.
Production growth was driven primarily by the expansion of pre-salt operations and improved efficiency across offshore production systems. Domestic output of crude oil and natural gas liquids reached 2.832 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 12.4% year over year. Oil production from Brazil’s pre-salt fields alone climbed to 2.454 million bpd, up 15.9% from the same period in 2025. Including volumes attributable to partners in Petrobras-operated fields, total operated production reached a record 5.082 million boe/d.
The increase was supported by the continued ramp-up of the P-78 and P-79 floating production units at the Búzios field and the strong performance of the Alexandre de Gusmão floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) at Mero, which reached a daily production peak of 190,000 barrels in September. The Almirante Tamandaré FPSO, also operating at Búzios, set a Brazilian production record with an average output of 263,000 bpd in July. Petrobras brought 12 new production wells online during the quarter and achieved its highest operational efficiency level since late 2018.
The production expansion was accompanied by record exports of crude oil and refined products, totaling 1.251 million bpd, an increase of 20.7% from the third quarter of 2025. Crude oil exports accounted for 987,000 bpd, while fuel oil shipments reached 198,000 bpd. Compared with the second quarter, however, total exports rose by just 1.7%, despite the increase in production.
The divergence between rising output and the company’s net trade balance becomes clearer when looking at imports. Purchases of crude oil and refined products from overseas climbed from 156,000 bpd in the second quarter to 333,000 bpd in the third, a 114.1% increase. Diesel imports surged from 18,000 bpd to 110,000 bpd, while crude oil imports rose from 89,000 bpd to 129,000 bpd. As a result, the net export balance declined from 1.075 million bpd to 918,000 bpd.
Part of that shift reflects seasonal demand patterns. Diesel consumption increased during planting for Brazil’s summer crop season and amid stronger industrial activity. The second quarter had also seen exceptionally low imports of refined products, creating a favorable comparison base. On a year-over-year basis, total imports increased by only 6.1%, while diesel imports actually fell by 8.8%. The sharp quarterly increase, therefore, does not in itself indicate a structural deterioration in Petrobras’ ability to supply the domestic market.
Refineries Operate Near Full Capacity
In Brazil’s domestic market, refined product sales reached 1.854 million bpd, the highest level since the third quarter of 2021 and the strongest performance under Petrobras’ current refining configuration. Diesel sales increased by 14.4% from the previous quarter to 849,000 bpd.
The company’s refineries operated at an average utilization rate of 99% and produced a record 769,000 bpd of diesel, up 6.7% year over year. Petrobras prioritized diesel production at some of its facilities, contributing to a 19.3% quarterly decline in jet fuel output.
Changes in the geographical distribution of crude oil exports also stood out. China’s share of Petrobras’ crude shipments rose from 35% in the second quarter to 40% in the third. The United States saw its share jump from 2% to 12%, while India’s share fell sharply from 22% to 8%. Europe remained unchanged at 18%.
According to Petrobras, the shift in export destinations reflects differences in demand conditions and the relative attractiveness of prices across international markets.
The operational results also strengthen the outlook for further production growth in the coming years. The P-80 and P-82 platforms, both destined for the Búzios field, departed a shipyard in Singapore between September and October and are scheduled to begin operating in 2027.
Each unit will have a nominal production capacity of 225,000 bpd. Their commissioning is expected to expand installed capacity in Brazil’s pre-salt region, although actual production volumes will depend on the pace at which new wells are brought online and on reservoir performance.
The expansion in production, however, has also created an additional challenge for Petrobras’ environmental targets. Operational greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas activities increased to 37.5 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent in the first nine months of 2026, compared with 35 million metric tons during the same period a year earlier.
At the same time, emissions intensity in exploration and production declined to 14.1 kilograms of CO₂ equivalent per barrel of oil equivalent produced, compared with 14.7 kilograms for full-year 2025. The figures point to a more carbon-efficient operation per unit of output, even as absolute emissions continue to rise.
For investors, the report confirms Petrobras’ ability to expand production, maintain high refinery utilization rates, and strengthen its presence in international markets. The financial impact of that performance, however, will depend on realized crude oil prices, refining margins, and operating and logistics costs.
Higher production volumes strengthen the company’s operational fundamentals, but record output alone does not guarantee a corresponding increase in earnings or cash flow.
Leave a Reply