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Fed Pauses as ECB Exit Sparks Leadership Race; Big Tech, Energy and Banks Paint Mixed Picture

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% on Thursday, but the decision was marked by dissent — two policymakers voted to raise rates — underscoring lingering hawkish pressure as officials weigh inflation risks against slowing growth.

In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said she will leave the ECB in February 2027, touching off an early scramble to succeed her. Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos and the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot have emerged as the leading contenders, setting up a politically charged competition that could reshape ECB policy direction at a pivotal moment for the region.

Markets were navigating a patchwork of corporate results and buyback announcements. Shell Plc. said it will repurchase $5 billion of stock in the fourth quarter — up from $3 billion previously — after reporting profits that climbed to their highest levels since the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine war. TotalEnergies SE, which also posted markedly stronger earnings on Thursday, had already pledged up to $2.5 billion in buybacks, highlighting how energy firms are returning cash to shareholders amid elevated oil prices.

European banks showed signs of life: Societe Generale SA reported stronger equities trading in 3Q26, joining others that have benefited from a broad market rally that lifted activity across trading desks.

But the tech sector delivered a punch to sentiment. Alphabet Inc. plunged about 10% in early trading — its largest one‑day market‑value decline — after disclosing weaker-than-expected search and advertising sales.

Auto and chipmakers offered mixed signals. BYD reported 3Q26 net income up 28% year‑on‑year to 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion), but that result came in roughly 17% below the Bloomberg‑compiled analyst consensus; revenue missed by about 8%. The day’s earnings calendar is stacked, with Amazon, Bristol‑Myers Squibb, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Intel, Mastercard, Merck, Mondelez and Starbucks all due to report — results that could sway sector rotations into the close.

Regional markets traded with modest dispersion: European and Japanese equities ticked higher, up roughly 0.3%, while Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks fell about 0.8% on average. U.S. futures slid, led by a 1% drop in Nasdaq contracts as investors digested Alphabet’s hit to the sector. Commodities were little changed — Brent crude slipped about 1% to $114 a barrel.

Investors now face competing forces: central bankers balancing inflation and growth, corporate cash returns lifting pockets of the market, and uneven earnings that may widen sector divergences in the weeks ahead.


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