By Brazil Stock Guide – Embraer SA (B3: EMBR3; NYSE: ERJ) will make what it calls a “landmark” announcement in the United States on Sept. 10. The event may move on two fronts: a potential agreement with the Donald Trump administration to produce the KC-390 military transport locally and an expansion of the company’s commercial aviation footprint in the U.S. Analysts also see the occasion as an opportunity to push for the elimination of the 10% import tariff on Brazilian aircraft.
The ceremony, scheduled for 10 a.m. local time in Washington, will bring together CEO Francisco Gomes Neto, Commercial Aviation President Arjan Meijer, and Bank of America aerospace analyst Ronald Epstein. The invitation also highlights a “special guest,” suggesting the announcement could carry political weight and include commitments from the U.S. government.
We are an example of a win-win relationship with the U.S., Gomes Neto said in July, commenting on the tariff negotiations.
KC-390 and commercial jets in focus
Embraer has indicated it is ready to invest $500 million in a U.S. assembly line for the KC-390, creating around 2,500 direct jobs if the government proceeds with the aircraft. Already adopted by NATO members, the KC-390 is seen as a competitor to Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. At the same time, Meijer’s presence in Washington raises expectations that Embraer may also announce steps to expand local production of commercial jets, underscoring its commitment to the U.S. regional aviation market.
The U.S. accounts for 45% of Embraer’s commercial sales and 70% of its executive jets. The company estimates it will channel $21 billion in purchases from American suppliers by 2030. Currently, about one-third of regional flights at major U.S. airports are operated with Embraer aircraft.
According to Reuters, citing JPMorgan analysts, cutting the tariff from 10% to zero could add $50 million to second-half 2025 EBIT — around 20% of first-half operating profit. Still, given the strategic weight of both the KC-390 and commercial aviation, tariff relief may serve more as a political complement than as the centerpiece of the announcement.
Trump tariffs and Boeing’s failure
Embraer narrowly escaped Trump’s full tariff plan: a threatened 50% surcharge on Brazilian products was reduced to 10% on its jets. Founded in 1969 under Brazil’s military government, the company today employs about 23,000 people, half of them in São José dos Campos, underscoring its domestic importance. Its recent history also includes the failed joint venture with Boeing, announced in 2018 and abandoned in 2020 when the U.S. company faced financial troubles. The collapse left Embraer independent, sharpening its lobbying push in Washington.
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