By Brazil Stock Guide – Embraer (NYSE: EMBJ; B3: EMBJ3) expects airlines worldwide to order 8,500 new commercial aircraft with up to 150 seats over the next two decades, representing a market valued at about $650 billion, according to its Market Outlook 2026 released ahead of next week’s Farnborough International Airshow in the U.K.
The forecast, which covers aircraft deliveries through 2045, highlights the long-term growth prospects for the market segment where Embraer is the global leader. The company expects global passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), to expand by an average of 3.7% annually, driven by growing demand for regional connectivity, fleet renewal and more efficient aircraft.
China is expected to post the fastest passenger traffic growth at 5.2% a year, followed by the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. North America, despite slower traffic growth, is projected to remain the largest aircraft market, accounting for 2,670 deliveries, or 31% of global demand, ahead of Europe and China.
The outlook comes as Embraer enters the Farnborough International Airshow from July 20 to 24 with strong commercial momentum. The Brazilian manufacturer said it is benefiting from rising aircraft deliveries, a record order backlog and continued expansion across its commercial aviation, defense, executive aviation and urban air mobility businesses.
Chief Executive Francisco Gomes Neto said the company is positioned for sustainable growth as demand remains robust across all of its business segments.
“Embraer is prepared for sustainable growth, supported by strong demand across all businesses, expanding global presence and continued investments in efficiency and innovation,” Gomes Neto said. “We see consistent demand across all of our markets, and Farnborough provides a unique opportunity to engage customers, strengthen partnerships and pursue new business opportunities worldwide.”
The company delivered 109 aircraft during the first half of 2026, up about 20% from 91 a year earlier, reflecting improved production stability and manufacturing efficiency. Combined with record sales, the performance has provided increased visibility into future revenue growth.
At Farnborough, Embraer will showcase its flagship E195-E2, the largest aircraft in the E-Jets E2 family and the world’s most fuel-efficient small narrowbody, alongside the KC-390 Millennium military transport aircraft, which continues to gain traction among NATO members and other international customers. The company will also highlight the future of urban air mobility through subsidiary Eve Air Mobility, which will display a full-scale mock-up of its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
The market outlook reinforces Embraer’s long-standing strategy that airlines increasingly need aircraft sized to actual passenger demand rather than simply maximizing seat capacity. Smaller, fuel-efficient jets allow carriers to add frequencies, connect secondary cities and improve profitability on thinner routes while lowering emissions.
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