By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil’s oil production is projected to reach 4.9 million barrels per day in 2036, about 30% above 2025 levels, according to a government energy outlook released Thursday, Nov. 5. The forecast underscores the country’s dependence on offshore production and the need for continued exploration to sustain output over the next decade.
The projection is part of the Decennial Energy Expansion Plan 2036 (PDE 2036), published by Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy and the Energy Research Office (EPE). The report estimates that exploration and production investments could total as much as R$2.4 trillion ($440 billion) between 2027 and 2036, supporting the development of new fields and the deployment of 29 floating production, storage and offloading vessels, known as FPSOs.
Oil output is expected to reach approximately 5 million barrels per day as early as 2028, driven largely by new production units in pre-salt fields. Production would then remain near that level through 2036, when output is forecast at 4.9 million barrels per day.
The projections depend on continued investment, additional discoveries and the development of new exploration areas, according to the report.
Pre-Salt to Account for 73% of Oil Production
Brazil’s pre-salt fields are expected to remain the country’s primary source of crude oil, accounting for 73% of national production by 2036.
Deepwater and ultra-deepwater operations are projected to represent 94% of total output, illustrating the importance of offshore reserves to the country’s future energy supply.
Onshore production, by comparison, is forecast to reach 153,000 barrels per day, equivalent to approximately 3% of national output.
The outlook suggests that maintaining production near 5 million barrels per day will require continued development of offshore projects, as well as new discoveries to offset the natural decline of producing fields.
Natural Gas Production Forecast to Rise 72%
Brazil’s gross natural gas production is projected to increase 72% from 2025 levels to 308 million cubic meters per day in 2036.
Growth is expected to come primarily from the Santos, Campos, Sergipe-Alagoas and Parnaíba basins. Pre-salt operations are forecast to account for 76% of gross gas production by the end of the period.
Net natural gas production, which excludes volumes consumed by operations, reinjected into reservoirs, lost or flared, is expected to increase 125% to 135 million cubic meters per day.
Pre-salt fields would contribute approximately 55% of net production, while onshore operations are projected to reach 26 million cubic meters per day, representing about 20% of the national total.
The increase in available gas supplies would depend on infrastructure capable of processing and transporting production from offshore fields.
New Technologies Could Unlock Additional Reserves
The government report identifies several opportunities to increase oil and gas recovery through new technologies, infrastructure upgrades and more efficient use of existing reservoirs.
One proposal involves developing a natural gas processing hub at the Mero field in the Santos Basin. The facility could process gas from production units that lack their own carbon dioxide separation systems.
The project could enable the export of as much as 15 million cubic meters of gas per day from the field, according to the study.
The report also examines the potential benefits of improving recovery rates, which measure the proportion of hydrocarbons that can be extracted from underground reservoirs.
Each one-percentage-point increase in recovery rates could add approximately 207 million barrels of oil equivalent to recoverable resources in onshore basins.
For offshore fields, the potential increase would be substantially larger, reaching approximately 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
In the Campos Basin, extending the productive life of mature fields could involve connecting additional wells to existing facilities, upgrading offshore infrastructure, electrifying platforms and introducing carbon capture and storage technologies.
Such measures could improve operating efficiency, extend field production and reduce emissions associated with oil and gas extraction.
Exploration Investment Seen at Up to R$2.4 Trillion
Brazil could invest as much as R$2.4 trillion in oil and gas exploration and production from 2027 through 2036, according to the government projections.
A significant portion of that investment would support the installation of 29 FPSOs over the period.
The vessels are essential to developing offshore fields because they combine production, processing, storage and oil-transfer capabilities.
The outlook also identifies opportunities related to the decommissioning of aging offshore facilities, which could generate demand for specialized engineering services, equipment suppliers and new technologies.
The scale of investment highlights the financial and operational requirements involved in sustaining the country’s production capacity over the next decade.
New Discoveries Needed to Sustain Output
Brazil’s proven oil reserves could reach approximately 23 billion barrels by 2036, according to the EPE projections.
At the expected production rate, the reserves-to-production ratio would stand at roughly 13 years.
Proven natural gas reserves could reach approximately 1 trillion cubic meters, equivalent to an estimated reserves-to-production ratio of eight years.
These indicators highlight the importance of exploration investment and converting prospective resources into commercially recoverable reserves.
The government outlook identifies continued exploration, new acreage contracts, additional discoveries and the commissioning of planned production facilities as essential conditions for achieving its forecasts.
The projections are indicative rather than guaranteed production targets and depend on the execution of investment plans throughout the period.
Public Consultation Runs Through November 6
The PDE 2036 remains open for public consultation until Nov. 6, allowing companies, industry associations and other stakeholders to submit comments on the government’s energy projections.
Prepared by the EPE under guidelines established by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, the decennial plan provides a framework for evaluating Brazil’s energy supply and demand over a 10-year horizon.
The document serves as a reference for investment decisions and public policy across the energy sector, including oil and natural gas exploration, production capacity and infrastructure development.
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