By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil has launched the “Belém 4x Sustainable Fuels Pledge”, a plan to quadruple production and use of sustainable fuels by 2035. Announced at the Pre-COP meeting in Brasília, the proposal has early backing from India, Italy and Japan and will be formally presented during COP30 in Belém this November. The initiative builds on a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), commissioned in support of Brazil’s COP30 Presidency.
The IEA recognizes Brazil as a global benchmark for sustainable-fuel policy, citing its pioneering ethanol mandates since 1931, the RenovaBio program (2017), and the integration of biofuels into national energy planning. The study highlights how the country combines supply-security measures, flexible tax mechanisms and performance-based carbon markets to ensure affordability and innovation. Brazil’s 27–35% ethanol-blending range, mandatory storage rules, and an 80% flex-fuel vehicle fleet have made it resilient to oil-price shocks and a reference point for integrated climate and industrial policy.
According to the IEA, Brazil’s experience shows that stable, transparent policy frameworks can cut emissions, attract private capital, and spur technological innovation. Globally, biofuels already reduce transport-fuel import dependence by up to 15 percentage points in major importing countries. If current and announced policies are fully implemented, sustainable-fuel use could double by 2030 and quadruple by 2035, requiring US$1.5 trillion in investment and creating nearly 2 million direct jobs, mostly in emerging economies.
“Brazil is uniquely positioned to lead this agenda, combining food security, energy security and sustainability,” said Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, President of COP30, in remarks to Agência Brasil. He noted that the “Belém 4x” pledge aims to align climate policy with industrial competitiveness by creating a predictable market for low-carbon technologies such as green hydrogen, advanced biofuels and synthetic fuels.
The initiative also builds on the COP28 (Dubai) commitments to triple renewable capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. Belém 4x seeks to extend that momentum by creating a global pillar for sustainable fuels, targeting hard-to-electrify sectors like aviation, shipping and steel, where sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and low-emission hydrogen are seen as indispensable for meeting Paris Agreement goals.
The IEA report further notes that developing economies such as Brazil, India and Indonesia are well placed to lead the next phase of the energy transition by turning their agricultural and forestry resources into low-carbon industrial chains. For Brazil, this includes the expansion of second-generation ethanol (2G), the integration of biogas into the power matrix, and the development of e-fuels from ethanol and captured CO₂ — initiatives already pursued by companies like Raízen, UNICA and Petrobras.
If broadly adopted by major economies, Belém 4x could establish a structural signal of future demand for sustainable aviation fuel, green hydrogen and advanced bioenergy, unlocking standards, mandates and industrial investment before fossil assets lose value. Agência Brasil said the full text of the pledge will be released “in the coming days,” ahead of the ministerial sessions that will prepare COP30.
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