By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil’s grain production is forecast to reach 353.4 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, according to the fifth crop survey released Thursday by the Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), the federal agency linked to the Ministry of Agriculture responsible for monitoring crop output, food supply and strategic stocks. If confirmed, the figure would mark a new record, albeit with a modest 0.3% increase over the 2024/25 cycle, according to Agência Brasil.
The planted area is expected to total 83.3 million hectares, up 1.9% year-on-year, equivalent to an additional 1.5 million hectares. National average yields, however, are projected to decline 1.5%, from 4,310 kilograms per hectare in 2024/25 to 4,244 kilograms per hectare this season, reflecting uneven productivity gains across crops and regions.
Soybeans Lead the Surge
Soybean output is projected to hit a record 178 million tons, up 6.5 million tons from the previous cycle, supported by favorable weather conditions in key producing regions. Harvesting has reached 17.4% of planted areas nationwide, ahead of last year’s pace and close to the five-year average.
In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state, 46.8% of the crop has already been harvested, with yields broadly aligned with earlier estimates. Strong soybean performance continues to anchor Brazil’s position as the world’s top exporter, reinforcing the country’s role in global oilseed supply chains.
Corn Mixed, Despite Strong First Crop
Total corn production across all cycles is projected at 138.4 million tons, down 1.9% from 2024/25. The first crop shows resilience, with planted area expanding 7.2% to 4 million hectares and output expected to rise 7.1% to 26.7 million tons.
By contrast, second-crop corn area stands at 17.9 million hectares, with projected output of 109.3 million tons. Exports are forecast at 46.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, while domestic consumption is estimated at 94.5 million tons. Carryover stocks by January 2027 are expected to remain near 12 million tons, suggesting relative balance despite lower production.
Rice, Beans and Cotton Adjust
Rice acreage is set to decline 11.6% to 1.6 million hectares. Production is estimated at 10.9 million tons, with Rio Grande do Sul remaining the largest producer. Improved reservoir levels in the state have supported crop development after previous water constraints.
Bean output across three annual harvests is forecast at around 3 million tons, with the first crop alone expected to fall 9% year-on-year to 967,200 tons due to reduced planted area.
Cotton production is projected at 3.8 million tons, down slightly as planted area retreats 3.2% to 2 million hectares. About 88.1% of cotton fields have already been sown, according to Conab.
Global Implications
Brazil’s near-record grain outlook underscores the country’s expanding footprint in global food and feed markets, even as productivity edges lower. With soybeans compensating for softer corn and rice dynamics, the 2025/26 cycle points to sustained export capacity — a key variable for global commodity prices, trade balances and currency flows in emerging markets.
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