By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil’s oilseed industry group Abiove reduced its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 177.7 million tons, down from 178.5 million previously, according to data published by Broadcast. The revision, released on Tuesday (18), reflects a 0.4% cut from last month’s estimate. Crushing remains steady at 60.5 million tons, while grain exports are unchanged at 111 million tons.
The association highlighted that output of soybean meal and oil will remain at 46.6 million and 12.15 million tons, respectively. Meal exports are projected at 24.6 million tons, and oil shipments at 1.2 million tons — a 20% jump from the prior outlook.
Daniel Furlan Amaral, Abiove’s director of economics and regulatory affairs, said the updated numbers underscore the resilience of Brazil’s soybean sector. “Even with minor adjustments, the figures reinforce the strength of the soybean chain and the sector’s ability to meet domestic and export market demand efficiently,” he said. “The expansion of crushing and the consistent export pace confirm Brazil’s strategic role in the global soybean complex.”
Abiove also raised its production estimate for the 2025 calendar year to 172.1 million tons, slightly above the previous 171.8 million. Crushing is expected to reach 58.5 million tons, while exports should total 109 million. Soybean ending stocks were revised upward to 6.9 million tons from 6 million, an increase of 14.2%.
Meal production for the year remains at 45.1 million tons, with shipments of 23.6 million tons and domestic consumption of 19.5 million tons. Ending stocks are stable at 4.6 million tons. Soybean oil output stays at 11.7 million tons, with exports of 1.35 million tons and domestic use of 10.5 million tons. Stocks are projected at 416,000 tons.
In September, Brazil processed 4.1 million tons of soybeans, a 9.1% drop from August and 1.2% below September 2024, based on sampling adjustments. Year-to-date crushing reached 39.3 million tons, 5.1% higher than the same period last year.
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