By Brazil Stock Guide – Axia Energia (B3: AXIA3) is no longer looking backward. In its 3Q25 call with analysts, the company’s leadership declared the end of its long restructuring chapter and the start of a more confident cycle of expansion. CEO Ivan Monteiro said Axia has “cleaned the slate” — exiting nuclear and thermal generation, streamlining its structure, and reducing the decades-old compulsory loan liability to below R$12 billion (US$2.1 billion).
“We’re now fully focused on business expansion, not litigation,” Monteiro said, signaling that the former Eletrobras has completed its transformation into a private company built around efficiency, predictability, and profit.
From cleanup to growth
The CEO said Axia will stay active in upcoming transmission and capacity auctions, after winning four ANEEL lots this year worth roughly R$1.6 billion in investment. The strategy, he noted, reflects a shift from stabilizing operations to pursuing profitable growth.
Vice President of Strategy and M&A Hélio Wolff described the new phase as one defined by precision and patience. “We target double-digit returns and only move forward when there’s clear value creation,” he said. “Our approach is optionality, not overreach.”
Wolff added that the company’s balance sheet now allows it to reinvest with flexibility, prioritizing projects that strengthen its position in transmission and renewable generation while maintaining tight cost control.
Analysts test the dividend logic
The Q&A brought pointed questions about how far Axia can stretch its balance sheet. Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs asked whether the company’s R$8.3 billion dividend payout for 2025 might limit its investment capacity. Monteiro pushed back, saying the policy is built on a multi-year capital model that ensures payouts don’t jeopardize growth.
CFO Eduardo Haiama expanded on that logic. “Dividends are not ad hoc decisions,” he said. “We only distribute when we have visibility and leverage comfort. Our model is conservative — but flexible enough to reward shareholders as results improve.”
Haiama said Axia maintains about R$20 billion in cash, with a floor of R$10 billion for liquidity, and that its transformation is now complete: the company has sold Eletronuclear and EMAE, exited thermal power with the sale of Santa Cruz, and acquired Tijuá Energia (Três Irmãos hydro plant) — making it a 100% renewable generator.
Regulation, prices, and politics
The discussion also turned to Brazil’s new Provisional Measure 1304/2025, which overhauls subsidies and price formation in the electricity market. Antônio Junqueira from BTG Pactual asked what the changes could mean for Axia’s cost structure.
Vice President of Regulation Rodrigo Limp called the reform “a necessary correction to structural distortions,” saying it will promote a fairer, more transparent market. “The new framework moves toward realistic price signals and better system reliability,” he said. “It creates a more stable environment for investment.”
Limp noted that despite short-term volatility, prices for 2026 contracts have remained around R$240 per MWh, supported by stronger hydrology and improved risk modeling.
Betting on storage and innovation
Analysts also pressed the company about its plans for battery energy storage, one of the next frontiers in Brazil’s power market. Wolff said Axia already has “a meaningful pipeline” of projects under study and intends to compete both in regulated auctions and open-market contracts once new rules are finalized. “Storage will be essential for flexibility,” he said. “We’re preparing now to be ready when the market opens.”
Growth with governance
Monteiro closed the call with a note of quiet confidence. “We delivered stability and predictability,” he said. “Now we’ll deliver growth — with discipline and governance.”
After years of restructuring, Axia emerges as Latin America’s largest private power company, leaner, cleaner, and — for the first time in decades — firmly in control of its own agenda.
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