The oil shock in March lifted fuel distributors’ margins in the first quarter. But the question for Vibra Energia (VBBR3) and Ultrapar Participações SA (UGPA3), owner of Ipiranga, has changed: if Brent remains above $100 in the coming months, does this new level support higher profitability, or does it simply force companies to finance more expensive inventories?
Brent moved from an average of $70.89 per barrel in February to $103.13 in March and $117.29 in April. For Brazil’s diesel market, the effect was severe. Brazil is a net diesel importer, so higher oil prices quickly raise replacement costs. Imports require more cash, suppliers tighten payment terms, and companies with scale, logistics and access to credit gain an advantage.
Ultrapar is a holding company that includes Ipiranga. In 1Q26, the group reported consolidated recurring adjusted EBITDA of R$2.320 billion, of which R$1.665 billion came from Ipiranga. Vibra, by contrast, is almost a pure fuel-distribution play. Its headline number was impressive: adjusted EBITDA of R$3.204 billion and a margin of R$350 per cubic meter. But the recurring reading is different. Excluding R$800 million in non-recurring items, mostly tax recoveries, the margin was R$258 per cubic meter. Strong, yes. A miracle, no.
Ipiranga had the higher comparable margin: R$276 per cubic meter, with total volumes up 8% and diesel volumes rising 9%. Ultrapar attributed the performance to a better competitive environment, higher volumes and inventory gains on imported fuels as prices rose. That is margin, certainly. But it is margin with the smell of imported diesel cargoes, inventories and high Brent.
Cash separates the two stories. Vibra generated R$1.9 billion in operating cash flow, reduced leverage to 2.0 times net debt to EBITDA and added 155 service stations in the quarter. It captured margin and showed an ability to convert it into cash. At Ultrapar, operating cash generation of R$1.103 billion came with support from R$1.146 billion in supplier finance, or reverse factoring. Without that effect, there would have been a R$43 million cash outflow.
That does not diminish Ipiranga’s quarter. It shows the operation regained muscle precisely when the market stopped functioning normally. When opportunistic importers lose strength, companies with scale, logistics, brand and access to credit gain room. The question is how to separate structural margin from margin earned in a storm.
The next few months are the test. If Brent stays above $100 but stops rising, inventory gains lose force. If it falls, they can turn into losses. If it remains high, commercial margins may stay supported, but the capital required to import, carry inventories and finance customers also rises. The sector may have left behind the old R$140–R$160 per cubic meter margin range and started to defend something above R$200 per cubic meter. But R$250–R$280 per cubic meter still needs to prove it is the new normal.
A barrel above $100 does not simply reward whoever sells more fuel. It rewards whoever can buy, import, store, finance and sell before the bill comes due. In Brazil’s fuel distribution market, the most profitable liter is not necessarily at the pump. It is in the payment term — that unglamorous detail that, in a quarter of expensive oil, separates margin from money.
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