Weight-loss and diabetes injections are changing the economics of Brazil’s largest pharmacy chains. In the second quarter, GLP-1 drugs are estimated to have accounted for more than 10% of revenue at listed pharmacy retailers and roughly 5 percentage points of their combined 16% growth. In other words, a category representing just over a tenth of sales generated almost a third of the expansion. At the same time, growth in the broader pharmaceutical market has been slowing.
GLP-1s are already material for the three largest listed chains. At Raia Drogasil, they represented about 12% of second-quarter revenue and contributed around 6 percentage points of growth, even as the rest of the business continued to expand at a double-digit pace. At Pague Menos, the contribution from GLP-1s fell from 6.5 to 3.2 percentage points, alongside a broader slowdown in sales growth. At Panvel, category sales jumped 91% in the first half and could exceed 12% of revenue, although the richer GLP-1 mix is still putting some pressure on gross margins. Taken together, the numbers suggest that weight-loss injections are accelerating a sector that was already growing — but are now large enough to influence both the pace and profitability of that growth.
That is where the next phase of the story begins. Greater competition and lower prices could sharply expand the number of patients and the volume sold. At the same time, more manufacturers competing for shelf space should strengthen the purchasing power of large pharmacy chains. BTG estimates that GLP-1 gross margins could approach 25% by the end of 2026 and exceed 30% over the medium term.
Brazilian pharmacies are not yet dependent on GLP-1s to grow. But the category has become too important to be treated as just another product line. If volumes keep rising and margins improve, GLP-1s will have moved beyond being a pharmaceutical phenomenon and started to reshape the economics of pharmacy retail itself.
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