By Brazil Stock Guide – Petrobras (B3: PETR3 / PETR4; NYSE: PBR / PBR.A) said it will cut gasoline A prices sold to fuel distributors by 5.2% starting Jan. 27, reducing the average sale price to R$ 2.57 per liter, a decline of R$ 0.14 per liter, according to a company statement released on Monday.
The move extends a broader adjustment cycle that began after the energy-price turmoil of 2022. Since December of that year, Petrobras has reduced gasoline prices for distributors by R$ 0.50 per liter. When adjusted for inflation, the cumulative decline reaches 26.9% in real terms, underscoring the scale of the reset under the current pricing policy.
Gasoline A is the fuel sold by Petrobras before the mandatory ethanol blend, making it the key benchmark for pump prices across Brazil. While retail prices also depend on taxes, distribution margins and biofuel rules, refinery-level changes are closely watched by markets and policymakers because of their direct impact on inflation expectations.
For diesel, Petrobras said prices will remain unchanged for now. Even so, diesel has already undergone a deeper adjustment cycle. Since December 2022, the accumulated reduction in diesel prices for distributors totals 36.3% in real terms, reflecting earlier efforts to ease pressure on freight costs and logistics.
The decision signals a cautious approach to fuel pricing as Petrobras balances domestic inflation dynamics with currency movements and global oil prices. With gasoline easing again and diesel on hold, the company appears focused on gradual adjustments rather than abrupt swings at the start of 2026.
According to a note from Warren Investimentos, signed by strategists Andréa Angelo and Lais Camargo, the gasoline price cut came as a surprise. Based on Warren’s estimates, the refinery-level reduction should translate into a 1.54% decline at the pump, or roughly R$ 0.09 per liter, with a total negative impact of 8 basis points on the IPCA inflation index. As a result, the house revised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.40% from 4.50%. Warren now expects gasoline prices to post a -0.90% reading in February’s IPCA-15, -1.21% in the full February IPCA, and -0.56% in March’s IPCA-15, reflecting a faster-than-expected disinflation impulse from fuels.
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