By Brazil Stock Guide – Petrobras (BVMF: PETR4, PETR3; NYSE: PBR) will lower its sale price of gasoline to distributors by 4.9% starting Tuesday, October 21, setting the average wholesale price at R$2.71 per liter, a reduction of R$0.14 per liter. The company said the move reflects its commercial policy of aligning domestic fuel prices with international benchmarks while maintaining competitiveness.
It marks the second gasoline price reduction in 2025, totaling a drop of R$0.31 per liter, or 10.3% so far this year. Since December 2022, Petrobras has reduced gasoline prices by R$0.36 per liter, equivalent to a 22.4% decline when adjusted for inflation. The last cut occurred in August.
The adjustment comes amid a decline in global oil prices — with Brent crude down more than 3% in early October — and a mild appreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar, both of which ease Petrobras’s import costs. Together, these factors are expected to support a gradual decline in inflation, already reflected in market forecasts.
According to the Central Bank’s Focus survey, released Monday, economists now expect 2025 inflation at 4.70%, down for the fourth consecutive week and edging closer to the official target ceiling of 4.5%. Several analysts already see inflation ending the year within the target range, supported by lower fuel prices and a favorable exchange rate.
For diesel, Petrobras said it will keep current prices for distributors unchanged. The company has implemented three diesel price cuts since March 2025, and when adjusted for inflation, wholesale diesel prices have fallen 35.9% since December 2022.
How fuel prices are formed
Petrobras’s pricing adjustments only partially influence what drivers pay at the pump. According to data compiled by Petrobras based on ANP and CEPEA/USP figures, the company’s share represents about one-third of the final gasoline price, with taxes, ethanol blending, and retail margins accounting for the remaining two-thirds. The company’s latest reduction is expected to bring pump prices down by roughly R$0.10 per liter, from R$6.22 to about R$6.12 on average across Brazil — further reinforcing the disinflationary trend heading into year-end.
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