By Brazil Stock Guide – The Moll family, controlling shareholder of Rede D’Or (RDOR3), still has enough financial firepower to help ease the selling pressure created by GIC’s reduced stake in the company, according to estimates by BTG Pactual.
The analysis comes at a sensitive moment for Rede D’Or’s shares. The stock closed yesterday at R$ 33.85, giving the company a market value of R$ 74.6 billion. RDOR3 is down 16.3% this year. In February, before Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund signaled it would sell part of its position, the stock was trading near R$ 45.
In a report, BTG estimates that the Moll family has received about R$ 8.1 billion in net proceeds since Rede D’Or’s IPO, including secondary share sales, dividends and interest on equity. Of that amount, roughly R$ 3.5 billion has been reinvested in Rede D’Or shares and in SulAmérica shares before the merger.
That implies a reinvestment rate of 43%, which BTG views as one of the strongest signs of alignment between controlling shareholders and minority investors in the Brazilian equity market.
The key point is how much capital could still be available. BTG estimates that the family may still have around R$ 4.6 billion in net unreinvested proceeds. Assuming leverage of about 50%, that amount could come close to the roughly R$ 10 billion needed to buy a stake comparable to GIC’s current 12.75% position in Rede D’Or.
GIC’s partial exit
The analysis should not be read as a forecast that the Moll family will buy GIC’s stake. BTG itself notes that any move would depend on the family’s broader capital allocation strategy. Still, the calculation suggests that the pressure linked to GIC’s partial exit may not be permanent.
GIC first invested in Rede D’Or in 2015 and remains a relevant shareholder, with a seat on the board. More recently, it reduced its stake from about 17% to 12.75%, a move that has weighed on the stock.
On the other side of the trade, the controlling shareholders have been buying. According to BTG, the Moll family acquired about R$ 2.5 billion in RDOR3 shares between 2022 and 2026. This year alone, purchases have totaled roughly R$ 1.28 billion, equivalent to 34.6 million shares, or 1.5% of the company’s total share capital.
Rede D’Or itself has also been active as a buyer. BTG estimates that the company’s treasury has repurchased about R$ 1.9 billion in RDOR3 shares through buyback programs. Including SulAmérica shares acquired before the merger, total buybacks would reach approximately R$ 3.1 billion.
For BTG, these moves reinforce the “skin in the game” thesis around the Moll family and help offset the technical pressure caused by GIC’s reduced position.
An owner’s mindset
BTG also traces the Moll family’s long-standing owner’s mindset at Rede D’Or. In the bank’s reading, the controlling shareholders continue to act with a permanent-ownership approach, more focused on preserving and expanding the business over the long run than simply monetizing their stake.
That reading gives added weight to the family’s recent share purchases, especially at a time when GIC’s reduced position has been putting pressure on the stock.
BTG reiterated its Buy rating on Rede D’Or, with a 12-month price target of R$ 54. That implies upside of about 60% from yesterday’s closing price.
Beyond shareholder alignment, BTG points to resilient operating fundamentals, solid performance in both the hospital and insurance segments, healthy organic growth, margin resilience and strong free cash flow prospects.
The bank’s thesis is that GIC’s selling may continue to create short-term noise, but it does not change the structural case for the company. For BTG, Rede D’Or remains its preferred name in Brazil’s healthcare sector.
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