By Brazil Stock Guide — “I’m not overly optimistic, but I am optimistic.”
That is how Letícia Cardelli sums up Bradesco’s view of a specific segment of Brazilian agribusiness: large companies, agribusiness processors and major farming groups served by the bank’s corporate and wholesale division.
For those clients, Cardelli, who heads Bradesco BBI Agro, sees conditions beginning to improve, supported by recovering commodity prices, greater financial discipline and structural advantages that continue to make Brazil one of the world’s most competitive agricultural producers.
Cardelli recently attended Expointer, one of Brazil’s leading agricultural trade fairs, held in Rio Grande do Sul, and came away with a noticeably more positive reading of industry sentiment.
“Everyone seemed much more upbeat,” she told Brazil Stock Guide in an interview during Bradesco BBI’s Agro Summit 2026 in São Paulo. That improvement in sentiment is coinciding with more favorable moves in agricultural markets.
“Commodity prices are starting to come back,” she said. “I think we are beginning to see a more positive cycle ahead for Brazilian agribusiness.”
The expectation is not for a permanent upswing — agriculture remains inherently cyclical — but rather for a more favorable and durable environment over the coming months and into 2027.
Within the universe covered by Cardelli, financial conditions remain healthy. Her division serves large companies, agribusiness processors and major farming groups, including highly professionalized businesses with more developed governance structures.
“Overall, within this client base, the financial position remains healthy,” she said.
That distinction matters. Cardelli acknowledges that there are pockets of stress across the agribusiness value chain, particularly among more highly leveraged farmers and agricultural input distributors, a segment that has seen a number of restructurings and court-supervised reorganization proceedings in recent years.
But she cautions against extrapolating those problems to the sector as a whole. “When we talk about agribusiness, it is very important to make that distinction,” she said.
Among the larger groups served by Bradesco, the picture is one of greater financial resilience, scale and professionalization. Recent difficulties are also creating opportunities for the value chain to reorganize. In agricultural input distribution, Cardelli is seeing cooperatives and local and regional players regain ground.
“We are seeing the return of local players that really know the farmers in their regions,” she said.
The trend marks a shift from the previous cycle, when several companies pursued nationwide expansion strategies in an effort to capture scale and synergies. In some cases, Cardelli said, deep local knowledge proved more important than initially expected.
Activity is also picking up in the farmland market, particularly in Mato Grosso. Some assets have become more attractively priced, although high borrowing costs continue to constrain acquisition decisions.
The same high-interest-rate environment helps explain why even well-capitalized producers remain selective about investments. For now, the priority is to keep operations efficient, secure the inputs needed for planting and preserve liquidity. “Cash preservation,” Cardelli said. That does not mean operations are contracting.
Large producers continue to spend what is necessary to sustain productivity and competitiveness, while postponing expansion projects that can wait until financing conditions become more favorable.
That discipline could become particularly valuable as agricultural commodities begin to recover.
Cardelli sees improving conditions in markets including grains and believes part of that rebound could extend through 2027.
Producers are already taking advantage of better prices to protect margins.
“We are seeing a lot of price locking,” she said. “With commodity prices moving higher, producers are selling and locking in those levels.”
The result could be an increasingly favorable combination: recovering prices, protected balance sheets and more sophisticated risk management. For Cardelli, however, the strongest case for Brazilian agribusiness remains structural.
“We see agribusiness as a structural competitive advantage for Brazil,” she said. “Brazil is the most competitive country in the world across several agricultural products.”
The country combines geographic scale, climate, soil, technology and an agribusiness ecosystem built over decades. Animal protein, sugar, coffee and oranges are among the sectors Cardelli cited in which Brazil holds an especially competitive position globally.
Those advantages also help explain why she does not view China’s push for greater food security and domestic production as a structural threat to Brazil.
China is likely to continue seeking greater self-sufficiency, but in Cardelli’s view it will remain dependent on external suppliers to meet the sheer scale of its demand. “China will not be able to produce all the protein it needs,” she said. “It will continue buying from Brazil.”
The relationship could also evolve beyond traditional commodity exports.
Brazil, Cardelli said, has the potential to export agricultural knowledge, technology and expertise developed through decades of large-scale tropical farming.
“We can contribute to China not only through exports themselves, but also through expertise and know-how.”
Market diversification is another increasingly important part of the story.
Cardelli sees growing opportunities in the Middle East, where food security has become a strategic priority and investors are pursuing partnerships with Brazilian companies, particularly in the protein industry.
Indonesia represents another potential growth market. JBS recently reached an agreement with an Indonesian sovereign wealth fund.
“The Middle East has a very strong food-security agenda,” Cardelli said. “And Indonesia has also been showing significant interest in investing in Brazilian agribusiness.” Agribusiness’s growing importance has also prompted Bradesco itself to rethink how it serves the sector.
About a year and a half ago, the bank created a dedicated agribusiness division within its wholesale operation, bringing together clients across the sector’s different value chains.
Cardelli took charge of the new structure. Today, the division operates through 11 regional platforms across Brazil and has 32 professionals dedicated exclusively to credit analysis for agribusiness clients. The bank also has a commodities desk, specialist traders and economic research teams focused on the sector.
“When you specialize, you become much more precise in the solutions you offer,” Cardelli said.
According to her, Bradesco’s total agribusiness loan book stands at around R$130 billion, placing the bank among Brazil’s three largest lenders to the sector, alongside Banco do Brasil and Itaú.
More than half of that portfolio is related to clients served by Bradesco’s wholesale banking operation. For Cardelli, specialization allows the bank to understand a sector that has become increasingly sophisticated and in which seemingly similar companies can have very different financial and operating profiles.
Large farmers today must simultaneously manage productivity, commodity prices, foreign exchange, weather, credit and financial risk.
After a more challenging period, Cardelli believes the largest groups are entering the next cycle more disciplined and better prepared. Her optimism therefore remains measured — but it is clearly growing. “I think we are starting to see a more positive cycle from here.” For Brazil’s large agribusiness companies, 2027 could mark the beginning of that turn.
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