By Rodrigo Uchoa, special for Brazil Stock Guide
In 2026, “consumer confidence” is less a mood than a negotiation. Households still want pleasure, novelty and identity—but they also want proof: that the product works, that the price is fair, that the brand is not insulting their intelligence. The result is a set of contradictions that, taken together, look rather like the new normal.
Below are five trends shaping global consumption in 2026, and the Brazilian twist on each.
1) The age of value theatre (and selective splurging)
World
• Shoppers are not merely trading down; they are curating where they trade down and where they indulge. Fashion, in particular, faces a more forensic consumer: the Business of Fashion–McKinsey State of Fashion 2026 notes that over 60% of consumers planned to trade down in Q4 2025, reinforcing a value-first posture going into 2026.
• “Worth it” is the new brand promise: not cheapness, but justification.
Brazil
• This logic plays well in a market trained by volatility. Consumers remain price-sensitive, but they will still pay for status markers that feel durable (a proper shoe, a watch, a dinner that photographs well).
• The online channel keeps gaining share: ABComm projections point to Brazilian e-commerce surpassing R$ 258 billion in 2026 (+10% vs 2025) — a big tailwind for comparison shopping, promotions and marketplace behaviour.
2) Wellness goes “professional”—and drinking becomes optional
World
• Wellness is moving from vibes to metrics: consumers are asking for professional-grade solutions at home. Euromonitor’s Global Consumer Trends for 2026 highlights holistic wellbeing, authenticity and “wellness going pro” as key shifts.
• Alcohol’s cultural monopoly continues to erode. IWSR expects the no-alcohol market to grow at ~7% CAGR from 2024 to 2028 in the UK, a useful proxy for the broader no/low direction of travel.
Brazil
• Brazil’s wellness market keeps its hedonistic accent: people want health that still tastes good—zero alcohol beers that behave like beer, functional drinks that do not punish the palate, and “cleaner” indulgence rather than ascetic purity.
• The Brazilian consumer’s scepticism is practical: claims are tested socially (“does it actually work?”), not merely believed because a brand hired a nutritionist.
3) Travel as identity: meaning, restoration, and “work-leisure blur”
World
• Travel is increasingly framed as self-definition rather than escape. Global Hotel Alliance’s 2026 survey points to travellers seeking “meaning, identity and restoration” over excess.
• Business travel is also being quietly repurposed: Navan notes that 55% of business travellers took at least two bleisure (business + leisure) trips in 2024, normalising the idea that a conference should come with a weekend.
Brazil
• Brazil is benefiting from the global appetite for nature, culture and “big-experience” travel. Embratur said the country closed 2025 with a record ~9.2 million international tourists, with December arrivals up 11% year-on-year.
• Domestically, the travel consumer is splitting: one group buys comfort (better hotels, curated food); another buys narrative (roots travel, festivals, gastronomic routes). Both are “experience investors”, just with different budgets.
4) Secondhand becomes mainstream: circularity as status (and convenience)
World
• Resale is no longer a recession hobby; it is a structural channel. ThredUp’s 2025 Resale Report says the global secondhand market grew 15%, and that secondhand represented 9% of global apparel spend in 2024.
• Consumers like the blend of savings, uniqueness and moral cover (“it’s sustainable”), even if the sustainability story is sometimes more comforting than measurable.
Brazil
• Brazil’s resale market is scaling beyond niche. In 2025, platforms tied to recommerce moved significant volume; one market read noted Enjoei and Elo7 transacting 2.25 million items in Q3 2025, indicating secondhand’s growing industrial rhythm.
• Gender patterns are visible: women dominate the everyday resale economy (fashion rotation, wardrobe liquidity), while men over-index in “asset-like” categories (sneakers, watches, collectibles)—where the purchase feels closer to a trade than a treat.
5) The instant-everything consumer: social commerce, frictionless payments—and backlash
World
• Platforms want commerce to feel like entertainment and checkout to feel invisible. Yet the consumer is increasingly impatient with low-effort persuasion. Euromonitor flags authenticity and self-expression as loyalty drivers—an implicit warning against synthetic brand personalities.
• In short: the algorithm can introduce the product, but it cannot easily manufacture trust.
Brazil
• Brazil’s payments infrastructure makes “frictionless” real. Pix is already dominant—and its evolution will pull more recurring spending into the instant-pay orbit. Reuters reported Pix processed over R$ 26 trillion in transactions in the prior year and launched Pix Automático to enable subscriptions and recurring bills with one consent.
• The Brazilian consumer’s reaction is again two-handed: embrace convenience (Pix everywhere), distrust the pitch (reviews, WhatsApp groups, influencer fatigue). The default stance is not naivety; it is verification.
Closing note: the sceptic’s toast
Each of these trends will be followed by this column with the appropriate dose of doubt. Research findings are not commandments; “consumer insights” can be as fashionable as sneakers. Still, scepticism should not be confused with joylessness. A good purchase—like a good trip, a good jacket, a good drink—can remain a small, civilised pleasure. The trick in 2026 is to enjoy consumption without being consumed by it.
@TheSkepticalHedonistsHandbook
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