Copel emerges as Ágora’s key bet with Brazil set to slash rates

By Brazil Stock Guide – Ágora Investimentos highlighted Copel as its top conviction call across all recommended portfolios for September, underscoring the utility’s attractive valuation and dividend yield close to 10% annually as Brazil prepares for an interest-rate easing cycle. With the Selic benchmark at 15% — the highest level in more than two decades — and projected to fall to 12% by late 2026, the brokerage is prioritizing bond proxies: stocks that deliver predictable cash flows and steady payouts.

In the Small Caps portfolio, Intelbras was replaced by Natura, following weak quarterly results and lack of short-term catalysts, while Natura remains deeply discounted and focused on restructuring its Latin American operations after divesting Aesop and The Body Shop. In the Top 10 portfolio, Telefônica Brasil and Klabin were dropped in favor of Multiplan and Vibra Energia. The Dividends and Diversification portfolios saw no changes.

“The start of a rate-cut cycle should allow for repricing of high-quality assets that combine visibility of cash flows with dividend growth,” Ágora’s research team wrote in the note.

The adjustments also reflect caution over risks including weaker economic activity, household stress and election-driven volatility. Still, Ágora flags strong income plays such as Itaú, with projected dividend yields of up to 10.5% in 2025, and Copel, expected to sustain payouts near 10% per year over the next three years.

Among sector highlights, Ágora pointed to:

• Multiplan, the most leveraged shopping mall operator, set to gain from lower financing costs and already reporting record NOI margins.
• Vibra Energia, seen as a beneficiary of anti-informality measures in the fuel-distribution sector.
• Vale, supported by efficiency gains and the delay of new iron-ore supply from Rio Tinto’s Simandou project in Guinea.

Winners and losers: The entry of Natura, Multiplan and Vibra underscores a strategic shift to capture benefits from falling rates, while the removal of Intelbras and Klabin highlights their lack of catalysts. Copel, included in every portfolio, remains the key bet, backed by liquidity gains, regulatory reviews and renewable expansion.