By Brazil Stock Guide – Vale (VALE3, VALE) said its base metals subsidiary could account for about 28% of consolidated EBITDA in 2026, giving investors a clearer number for a business the Brazilian miner has been trying to present as a second growth engine alongside iron ore.
The estimate is based on average 2026 price assumptions for copper, nickel and gold, using the average of sell-side analysts’ forecasts available in May, Vale said in a securities filing. The company added that all other estimates disclosed in its Reference Form remain unchanged.
The update strengthens a message Vale has been taking to the market: while iron ore remains the group’s main cash generator, its base metals unit is becoming large enough to affect how investors think about the company’s overall valuation.
At an investor presentation focused on Vale Base Metals, the company outlined plans to increase copper output from 350,000 to 380,000 tonnes in 2026 to 420,000 to 500,000 tonnes by 2030, with potential to reach about 700,000 tonnes a year by 2035. The growth plan includes projects such as Bacaba, Salobo, CPF and Alemão, as well as polymetallic assets in Canada.
A second engine
For Vale, the timing is important. Copper has become central to investor discussions about electrification, power grids, data centers, artificial intelligence and industrial reshoring. Unlike iron ore, which remains closely tied to steel production and Chinese demand, copper is increasingly associated with longer-term structural trends.
Vale has argued that global copper supply is not keeping pace with expected demand and that about 10 million tonnes of new capacity may be needed by 2035. The company has also highlighted the long development timeline for copper projects, a factor that could support tighter market conditions if demand continues to rise.
That is why the 28% EBITDA figure matters. It turns Vale Base Metals from a long-term optionality story into a business with meaningful near-term financial weight. A unit approaching one-third of group EBITDA is harder to treat as a footnote inside a company still largely valued as an iron ore producer.
The company stopped short of presenting the estimate as a firm target. Vale said the guidance is forward-looking and depends on market conditions, macroeconomic factors, commodity prices and operational performance. In practice, the contribution of Vale Base Metals will remain sensitive to movements in copper, nickel and gold.
Still, the update makes the investment debate more concrete. Vale continues to be anchored by iron ore, dividends and cash generation. But inside the same ticker, investors are being asked to assign value to a growing copper and nickel platform linked to a different commodity cycle.
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