By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil’s wind and solar power producers lost an estimated 6.5 billion reais ($1.3 billion) in 2025 after being forced to cut electricity output as the national grid struggled to absorb surging renewable generation, according to a technical study.
About 20% of the electricity that could have been produced by wind and solar plants during the year was curtailed, equivalent to 4,021 average megawatts. Curtailment occurs when generators are ordered to reduce output despite available capacity, typically because of operational constraints in transmission or system balancing.
The largest volumes of forced cuts were recorded in August, September and October, months that coincide with peak wind conditions, particularly in Brazil’s Northeast. Curtailment eased in November and December, reflecting both the end of the wind season and operational adjustments in the power system.
The study shows a sharp rise in operational stress. In 2025, the grid operated near its lower safety limit on 16 days, a condition that increases the risk of blackouts caused by excess generation. In 2024, that situation occurred on just one day.
The analysis attributes the deterioration to a structural shift in Brazil’s power mix. Solar generation, in particular, expanded at a pace that outstripped the system’s ability to adapt, creating periods when supply exceeded what the grid could safely manage.
Temporary measures helped prevent a critical scenario toward the end of the year. Climatic seasonality and operational decisions, including reduced thermal dispatch, were key to keeping the system away from its limits during the year-end period.
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