By Brazil Stock Guide – Petrobras (B3: PETR4; NYSE: PBR) may deliver higher-than-expected dividends starting in 2026, according to BTG Pactual, which sees upside from stronger cash generation supported by lower capex (long-term investments such as platforms and refineries) and opex (operating costs such as extraction and maintenance), in a sustained oil price environment.
The dividend yield—the return in dividends relative to the stock price—could reach 9.8% in 2026, up from 9.1% projected for 2025. Each $1 billion reduction in investments or operating costs could lift the yield by 0.5 percentage point. By contrast, expected outlays of $2.5 billion in 2025—split between ethanol projects ($1.5 billion) and pre-salt auction commitments ($1 billion)—are set to trim the 2025 yield by about 1.2 points, to 8.0%.
“The first catalyst to unlock value will be investor confidence in the sustainability of dividends,” wrote the BTG team led by Luiz Carvalho in a Sept. 18 note.
Elections and oil in focus
BTG sees the 2026–2030 Business Plan as a potential inflection point, though the 2026 election cycle may alter strategy under a new administration. A clearer fiscal backdrop and macroeconomic stability could lower the company’s cost of capital and bring Petrobras closer to regional peers, which trade at a 20% EV/EBITDA premium. Such convergence could imply as much as 30% upside in market value.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global oil demand growth of +2.7 million barrels/day in 2025 and +2.1 million in 2026, exceeding supply additions. Geopolitical risks remain a key driver of prices. For Petrobras, every additional $5 per barrel in Brent adds roughly 1.3 percentage points to dividend yield.
BTG maintained its Buy rating on Petrobras with a price target of R$44 per share, compared with the current R$31.60.
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