By Brazil Stock Guide – Ultrapar (B3: UGPA3) said during its Q&A session that Ipiranga is gaining scale again as the Carbono Oculto crackdown curbs irregular fuel sales, while margins remain slower to recover. Executives also addressed the performance of Ultracargo and Hidrovias, both central to the group’s logistics platform, and acknowledged that the company may advance dividends in the fourth quarter depending on tax developments. New investments, they said, will only be pursued if they unlock clear value; otherwise the group will increase payouts.
Analysts questioned management on fuel-market normalization, logistics performance, capital allocation, regulatory risks, the Gás do Povo rollout and working-capital sustainability. Executives offered a mix of optimism and caution.
“Volume has been a positive development and continues with an upward trend,” said Leonardo Linden, CEO of Ipiranga. He noted that margins remain slower to adjust and depend on continued enforcement and structural legislative measures such as devedor contumaz and monofasia da nafta.
Ipiranga’s volume recovery gains traction
Linden said Ipiranga is seeing stronger demand in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, the regions that suffered most from irregular sales. Premium products and IPMAX penetration are growing again, indicating consumers are returning to quality-based choices. Margin recovery, however, is gradual due to the slower repricing cycle of B2B and highway contracts. Linden also confirmed that “there was no relevant inventory loss in the third quarter,” and said residual distortions such as biodiesel under-blending and CEBIL remain pressure points.
Ultracargo faces weak demand but expects recovery
Asked about Ultracargo’s weaker results, CFO Alexandre Palhares said the company faced softer demand for fuel storage, especially from clients linked to import flows in Santos, Itaqui and Suape. Lower throughput drove a 12% decline in billed volume compared with 3Q24, even though tariffs improved. The quarter also reflected pre-operational and early-stage costs at the new Palmeirante terminal during its ramp-up.
Palhares told analysts that Ultracargo expects a recovery in the fourth quarter supported by the expansion in capacity and a gradual rebound in customer demand.
Hidrovias delivers record quarter; 4Q to reflect seasonality
On Hidrovias, analysts asked about the sustainability of results and the impact of the cabotage divestment completed on November 1. Palhares said the record EBITDA reflected the normalization of navigation conditions in the Southern Corridor, especially in iron-ore flows. He highlighted that the unit posted year-on-year EBITDA growth of more than 100% and that volumes increased 30%.
Management reminded analysts that the fourth quarter is seasonally weaker due to navigability constraints, with performance expected to be similar to 4Q22. The sale of the cabotage business will also affect 4Q comparability and help reduce consolidated leverage. During the Q&A, the company noted that Hidrovias-related questions should be addressed “under the perspective of the controlling shareholder,” signaling sensitivity around operational details post-acquisition.
Ultrapar keeps optionality: invest or return cash
CEO Rodrigo Pizzinato said the group continues to search for assets similar to Hidrovias — businesses where Ultrapar can unlock value through operational improvements, scale or market access. “We will look for projects with value-creation potential. If we do not find them, we will increase dividend distribution,” he said.
Pizzinato reiterated that the expected taxation of dividends could accelerate payouts before year-end. Strong cash generation in 2025 strengthens this possibility. CFO Palhares added that part of the working-capital gains is structural, while other components depend on market conditions. Consolidated CAPEX should finish the year about 10% below plan.
Gás do Povo expands as GLP reform moves slowly
Tabajara Bertelli, CEO of Ultragás, explained that the Gás do Povo program is progressing with more than 3,000 resellers already registered in the initial phase. The rollout will continue through the first half of 2026 as more distributors and resellers join. Volumes and prices should adjust gradually as the program matures.
On Brazil’s broader GLP reform, Bertelli said the ANP’s regulatory review is still under way, with a proposal expected only between late 1H26 and early 2H26.
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