By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil’s protein exports started 2026 on uneven footing, with beef volumes retreating on seasonal factors while poultry prices posted a meaningful rebound, helping support export spreads despite softer domestic demand. New January data from Brazil’s Foreign Trade Bureau (Secex), analyzed by BTG Pactual, highlight a sector still benefiting from favorable year-on-year comparisons but facing increasingly divergent margin dynamics across proteins.
Fresh beef export volumes fell 24% month on month to 232,000 tons after a strong end to 2025, though shipments remained 29% higher than a year earlier. Prices softened modestly, declining 0.6% in dollar terms, while cattle costs stayed broadly stable. As a result, beef export spreads narrowed sequentially, even as they remain above long-term averages — a level BTG Pactual views as vulnerable as Brazil approaches a cattle retention cycle.
Poultry was the clear bright spot in January. Export prices rose 5% month on month to $1,848 per ton, supported by China’s gradual return to the market following last year’s suspension. China accounted for roughly 8% of shipments, still below pre-ban levels of about 12%, suggesting room for further upside. Combined with a 5% monthly decline in input costs, poultry export spreads jumped 8% from December, according to the analysis.
Domestic dynamics were less supportive. Chicken prices fell 4% in the local market, but lower feed costs fully offset the decline, leaving spreads broadly flat. Looking ahead, BTG Pactual warns that margins may come under pressure as supply builds, with chick placements up 8% year on year in December — an early signal that poultry prices may remain under downward pressure in coming months.
Pork showed the weakest domestic performance. Prices dropped 8% month on month amid seasonally softer demand, while spreads declined 3%, cushioned by cheaper feed. Export volumes and revenues also fell sequentially, though year-on-year growth remained positive.
In the United States, the contrast between proteins remains stark. Poultry spreads improved on higher prices and lower costs, while beef continued to suffer from elevated cattle prices and a structurally pressured cycle. BTG Pactual expects a more durable recovery in U.S. beef margins only from 2028 onward, underscoring why global protein producers remain more constructive on poultry in the near term.
Overall, the January data reinforce a familiar theme for investors: Brazil’s protein sector is still benefiting from strong external demand and cost relief, but margin dispersion — rather than broad-based expansion — is likely to define the sector through 2026.
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