By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil will almost double its natural gas production by 2035, reshaping its energy map as pre-salt fields replace Bolivian pipeline gas and LNG becomes the system’s main balancing tool, according to the government’s new Energy Expansion Plan. Net output is projected to rise from 65 million to 127 million cubic meters per day, a 95% increase over a decade, with direct implications for prices, infrastructure and power supply.
The study projects that market-ready supply, after processing and system losses, will climb from 53 million to about 100 million cubic meters per day by 2035. The country already operates 4,919 km (3,057 miles) of gathering pipelines and 9,561 km (5,943 miles) of transport lines, forming the backbone of the integrated grid linking the Northeast, Southeast and the Bolivia–Brazil corridor.
At stake is more than volume. The government is repositioning gas as a permanent pillar of energy security rather than a transition fuel, tying supply growth directly to industrial competitiveness, fertilizer output, refinery expansion and the stability of the power grid.
From Bolivia to the Pre-Salt
Brazil is structurally reducing its dependence on Bolivian gas. Imports via the GASBOL pipeline fall from 13 million cubic meters per day in 2025 to 5 million by 2035, cutting exposure to geopolitical and contractual risks. LNG moves in the opposite direction. By the end of the horizon, liquefied gas accounts for up to 94% of imported volumes and almost half of total gas in the national grid.
Two offshore projects anchor the new supply map. The Raia project, off Rio de Janeiro, adds 16 million cubic meters per day in 2028, while Sergipe Águas Profundas (SEAP) contributes 18 million cubic meters per day starting in 2030, injecting gas directly into transport pipelines and bypassing onshore bottlenecks.
Brazil currently operates 14 gas processing units (UPGNs) with combined capacity of 120.1 million cubic meters per day. A new unit in Miranga, Bahia, comes online in 2027, while Petrobras’ Boaventura complex in Rio reached 21 million cubic meters per day in 2025.
Demand Growth Tests the Grid
Gas demand rises even faster than supply. Total consumption increases at 6.2% per year through 2035. Non-thermal demand grows at 3.37% annually, led by industry, which absorbs about 65% of these volumes. Residential, commercial and transport uses expand faster in percentage terms but remain smaller in absolute scale.
Downstream consumption accelerates with refinery expansions and fertilizer plant restarts. Units such as RNEST, REPLAN, REVAP and new nitrogen fertilizer projects drive 5.36% annual growth in this segment, reinforcing gas as a core industrial input.
Thermal power remains the system’s swing factor. In peak dispatch scenarios, gas-fired generation can exceed 140 million cubic meters per day, yet average annual demand equals only about half of that maximum, reflecting Brazil’s hydro-driven power mix.
The imbalance between rising demand and slower transport expansion creates structural stress. Simulations show that supply exceeds demand on paper, but physical bottlenecks prevent full flow, especially between the Southeast, Midwest and South.
To relieve this, the plan incorporates a new compression station in Japeri, Rio de Janeiro, unlocking transfers of more than 20 million cubic meters per day. Even so, constraints persist along the southern stretch of GASBOL, requiring further pipeline and compressor investments.
Prices, Risk and Capital
Citygate gas prices are projected to stabilize between $10.4 and $11.4 per MMBtu over the decade, with shrinking volatility as competition deepens and indexation to Brent oil and Henry Hub converges. The study flags that public policy could push prices lower if government incentive programs gain traction.
Investment needs are heavy. Projects already classified as “expected” total R$15.8 billion (about $3.1 billion). “Indicative” projects mapped by planners surpass R$132 billion (about $26 billion), led by transport pipelines, processing hubs, LNG terminals and compression stations.
The deeper implication is structural. Brazil is building a gas system that is less exposed to a single foreign supplier, more anchored in pre-salt geology, deeply integrated with LNG logistics and increasingly sensitive to infrastructure execution. Gas shifts from backup fuel to strategic economic infrastructure.
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