By Brazil Stock Guide – B3 S.A. (B3: B3SA3) outlined its strategy for 2026 at its B3 Day, betting that even modest macroeconomic improvement could trigger a sharp rebound in equities and derivatives trading. The exchange is preparing for the next interest-rate cycle while expanding recurring revenues to reduce dependence on market swings.
Management said pro-cyclical businesses, such as equities and derivatives, could accelerate quickly in a friendlier environment. At the same time, recurring segments, including fixed income, credit, data, technology and capital markets solutions, are expected to anchor results during weaker periods. The combination, executives said, leaves B3 structurally stronger than in past cycles.
A sensitivity study presented at the event showed how limited changes in investor behavior could lift volumes materially. Retail investors currently trade about R$ 3 billion per day on average. Engagement sits near 30%, with an average daily volume of R$ 1,800 per ID (CPF). If that figure rises to R$ 3,000, retail ADTV would jump to roughly R$ 4.9 billion.
“The equity market has changed radically over the past five years,” said Gilson Finkelsztain, chief executive officer of B3. “The number of accounts doubled, the distribution network expanded and investors gained access to more sophisticated products. In the next favorable cycle, volumes should grow significantly.”
Foreign investors also represent upside. Their allocation to Brazilian equities remains near historical lows. Even a small shift in global risk appetite could lift flows sharply. Local institutional investors face a similar setup after years of redemptions driven by high interest rates. Together, retail, foreign and domestic institutions account for about 70% of equity trading.
Diversification as ballast
B3 stressed that diversification now defines its business model. The exchange says it is roughly twice as large and far more diversified than five years ago, with recurring revenues acting as a buffer.
“Today, B3 is much less dependent on interest-rate cycles,” said André Milanez, the company’s chief financial, administrative and investor relations officer. “Recurring businesses are essential in challenging scenarios, and we intend to accelerate their growth while opening new revenue fronts.”
Those fronts include fixed income trading, electronic trade receivables and technology-driven services. On the pro-cyclical side, B3 is focusing on technology, pricing efficiency, liquidity and product breadth to prepare for easing conditions.
Retail derivatives and digital rails
A central initiative for 2026 is the launch of Financial Event Contracts. These are binary, yes-or-no derivatives linked to objective financial outcomes. Payoffs are capped, leverage is excluded and the structure targets retail investors. B3 has submitted requests to regulators for five such digital derivatives.
The exchange said regulated, simplified contracts could broaden participation. Today, about 250,000 to 300,000 clients trade traditional derivatives such as mini contracts. Management sees potential demand from the 5.4 million individuals already active in equities.
B3 launched 19 derivatives products in 2025. Its 2026–2027 pipeline includes 22 more, including daily-expiry weekly options on the U.S. dollar, Ethereum and Solana, crude oil futures and weekly bitcoin options denominated in dollars.
In equities, B3 highlighted indices, ETFs and securities lending as growth drivers. The CVM’s Regime Fácil, aimed at easing market access for smaller companies, could support future equity offerings. In fixed income, the exchange plans to boost secondary trading through its Trademate platform and position itself as a core infrastructure provider for electronic trade receivables, a market with potential estimated at R$ 11 trillion.
B3 is also studying tokenization and stablecoins. The goal is to integrate tokenized assets into its existing trading and post-trading systems, with a real-denominated stablecoin enabling settlement across a broader digital ecosystem.
Capital allocation outlook
In 2025, B3 invested R$ 1 billion to sustain and expand its core operations. For 2026, projected total investments and expenses range from R$ 3.1 billion to R$ 3.6 billion. That includes adjusted expenses of R$ 2.4 billion to R$ 2.6 billion, capital expenditures between R$ 260 million and R$ 350 million, and revenue-linked expenses of up to R$ 660 million. The company targets financial leverage of up to 2.2 times recurring EBITDA and plans to distribute 90% to 110% of net income to shareholders.
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