Last month, Washington raised the stakes. A 50% duty on Brazilian beef — on top of an existing 26.5% extra-quota tariff — rendered exports to the US commercially unviable. The American market had become Brazil’s second-largest destination. For JBS, the world’s biggest meatpacker and a major player in the US market, the new barrier shuts a key door and pushes it to look elsewhere.
Friboi, JBS’s Brazilian arm, had been shipping record volumes to the US. Now it must reroute cuts to Asia and the Middle East. China and Southeast Asia see beef as an aspirational good, while Japan could deliver premium margins if it opens its market. JBS leans on its global diversification — across proteins and geographies — to cushion the blow.
The political risk is sharper. Eggs became the emblem of food inflation under Joe Biden: supply recovered in six months, but the damage stuck. Beef runs on a longer clock. Nine months of gestation and up to two years of fattening mean a cycle of nearly three years. The shortage is structural, not seasonal. Retail data highlight the squeeze: the average price of ground beef in June hit $6.12 per pound, up about 12% from a year earlier. That is why it could become Donald Trump’s problem, just as eggs were Biden’s, Bloomberg noted.
Tariffs squeeze margins in Brazil and force adaptation. For JBS, they are manageable: scale and sanitary credibility secure access to alternative markets. The bigger danger lies in the US. If beef inflation persists, no protectionist rhetoric will preserve public patience. Steakhouse prices for supermarket burgers are hard to swallow in the US.
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