Brazil’s steel industry closed 2025 with an uncomfortable paradox: demand did not collapse, but profitability did. According to data from Instituto Aço Brasil, the country’s steelmakers’ industry body that compiles official production, apparent steel demand rose 3% last year, a sign of resilience in the domestic market. Yet that growth was largely captured by imports, which increased 7%, steadily eroding local producers’ market share.
The pain is most visible in flat steel. Imports in this segment surged 30% in 2025 on an already elevated base, pressuring prices and pushing sector EBITDA margins below 10%. That is a level comparable to the weakest points of the previous cycle — a reminder that volumes alone do not translate into earnings when protection is thin. December data underscored the pattern: domestic shipments rose, but imports grew faster.
Global dynamics offer little relief. Chronic overcapacity in China continues to distort trade flows and depress international prices. While China has intensified its rhetoric on curbing excess supply, concrete measures remain elusive. Brazilian exports did increase in 2025, but not enough to offset the structural pressure coming from imports.
Against this backdrop, the sector pinned its hopes on an antidumping decision as a potential turning point. The problem is timing. The ruling has been repeatedly delayed, prolonging uncertainty for producers. And even when it arrives, expectations are muted: risks related to triangulation and tariff adjustments are likely to dilute its impact, limiting any meaningful recovery in pricing power or margins.
Selectivity, therefore, becomes unavoidable. Gerdau, with significant exposure to the protected US market, appears structurally more defensible than CSN or Usiminas. For the sector as a whole, the message is blunt: with protection delayed and global oversupply entrenched, Brazilian steel remains a business of endurance — not returns.
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