Trump has triggered a strong equity rally after signaling that the US could disengage from Iran, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Iran, however, continues to deny both the reopening of the strait and the existence of any negotiations with the US.
Asian markets reacted sharply: Japan closed up as much as 5%, while Hong Kong and mainland Chinese indexes surged around 2.5%. In Europe, bourses are up approximately 2.2% on average. US futures are advancing another 0.5%, adding to yesterday’s 3% gain.
On the macro side, German economic institutes have cut their 2026 growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.6%. In the UK, PMIs point to the most severe supply chain stress since 2022. Meanwhile, multiple sources suggest Europe may begin fuel rationing within weeks.
In a more positive structural development, MSCI has upgraded Greece back to developed market status, reinforcing the country’s recovery narrative.
Commodities, however, are not fully aligned with the equity optimism. Brent crude is down around 2%, but still trading at an elevated $102 per barrel.
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