Global markets were mixed on Thursday as investors balanced renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Gulf with upbeat corporate earnings and cautious optimism from Washington.
Despite the theoretical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, around 20 ships—mostly Chinese—have transited the waterway since the U.S.–Iran standoff began, signaling partial normalization of trade flows. Former President Donald Trump said the war was “very close to the end,” lifting sentiment in risk assets and adding to perceptions that an uneasy truce may hold.
JPMorgan Chase shares rose after the bank beat market expectations with robust trading and lending income. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are set to report results later today, with investors watching for evidence that U.S. capital markets activity is rebounding after two volatile quarters.
ASML Holding NV raised its 2026 sales forecast, citing accelerating demand for AI‑related semiconductor equipment, and said order visibility was improving across its EUV and DUV platforms.
In stark contrast, Europe’s luxury sector continued to falter. LVMH, Hermès, and Kering all reported disappointing first‑quarter sales, weighed down by reduced tourism and a seven‑week Middle East conflict that has disrupted global consumer flows. Hermès shares plunged as much as 14% in Paris, dragging the broader sector lower. Europe’s four largest luxury groups have lost roughly $180 billion in market value since the end of 2025.
In corporate news, Commerzbank CFO expressed opposition to a potential Unicredit takeover, arguing the transaction “would not create value.” The statement underscores the political and strategic sensitivities surrounding consolidation in Europe’s banking sector.
Separately, speculation is mounting that Hungary could move toward adopting the euro under its new government — a major symbolic shift after the ouster of longtime leader Viktor Orban.
European stocks traded 0.4% lower, with weakness in luxury and financials offsetting strength in tech hardware. Chinese and Japanese markets both closed up 0.4%, while U.S. futures were slightly negative ahead of today’s bank earnings. Brent crude rose 1% to $96 a barrel, supported by lingering supply concerns and cautious optimism about peace negotiations.
Amid earnings surprises, geopolitical recalibration, and shifting European politics, investors appear content to pause — waiting to see if Washington’s optimism on the Iran conflict proves as solid as ASML’s profit outlook.
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