By Brazil Stock Guide – The Verde FIF Multimercado Fund, managed by veteran investor Luis Stuhlberger, rose 1.99% in September, extending its year-to-date gains to 12%, compared with 10.35% for the CDI. The performance was broadly distributed across strategies — led by Brazilian equities, gold, crypto assets and local credit — while small losses came from real interest rate positions in both Brazil and the United States.
The result came amid another strong month for global risk assets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 6.96% in September, marking the ninth consecutive month of gains. A weaker dollar and the Federal Reserve’s restart of an interest-rate-cut cycle continued to lift emerging markets. According to Verde report, the U.S. economy is showing an unusual mix of stubborn inflation, solid growth fueled by AI investment, and softening employment — a combination that “defies textbook logic” but keeps supporting risk appetite.
“Politics has overtaken economics,” the report argues, describing the Fed as hostage to political pressures as the U.S. approaches its next electoral cycle. Despite the inflationary backdrop, Verde sees the monetary easing as a politically driven move, one that paradoxically extends the rally in global markets.
In Brazil, the fund notes two diverging forces shaping the outlook: a tighter central bank tone and a government expanding fiscal stimuli, including Congress’s unanimous approval of income-tax exemptions up to R$ 5,000. Verde labels this the “fiscal accelerator with monetary brakes” — a phrase that captures what Stuhlberger sees as the core of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s economic dilemma. The setup, it says, is positive for the real but less favorable for equities, even as selective stock opportunities remain.
Verde has slightly increased its exposure to Brazilian equities while keeping its global book stable. In local fixed income, it maintains long positions in real rates; in the U.S., it cut real-rate exposure but stayed long on breakeven inflation. The fund is also long euro, Chinese renminbi, gold and the real, with continued allocations to crypto. Local and global high-yield credit books were maintained, showing a steady stance amid shifting macro dynamics.
The internal breakdown of results shows a balanced contribution: equities added 0.43 percentage point to monthly performance, credit added 0.10, and fixed income subtracted 0.09 — confirming a diversified, multi-engine portfolio structure. Verde continues to favor real assets and currency diversification as hedges in a world of falling nominal rates and persistent inflation.
In September, Vinci Partners acquired 50.1% of Verde Asset Management through its wealth-management arm, Vinci Compass. The transaction expands Verde’s distribution platform while Stuhlberger retains full control of portfolio management and strategy.
Founded in 1997, Verde is one of Brazil’s oldest and largest hedge funds, tracing its roots to the CSHG Verde fund launched nearly three decades ago. The strategy has delivered over 22,000% in cumulative returns since inception and remains closed to new investors. For Stuhlberger, the enduring principle behind the fund’s longevity is clear: technical caution combined with political flexibility — a formula he has applied to navigate crises, cycles and governments alike.
Leave a Reply