By Brazil Stock Guide – Petrobras (B3: PETR4) produced an average 3.11 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, keeping output broadly flat from the previous quarter and 18.3% above the same period a year earlier. The result confirmed a new production baseline.
Quarterly stability mattered more than growth. The company held output above 3 million boed despite heavier maintenance and natural decline. Brazilian production of oil, NGL and gas slipped 1.1% quarter on quarter. Seasonal shutdowns and lower efficiency in mature assets weighed on volumes.
Year-on-year, however, Brazilian production jumped 18.6%. The contrast highlights how fast the portfolio has shifted. Pre-salt fields produced 2.11 million barrels per day in the quarter. That accounted for 82% of total output, up from 77% a year earlier.
Eight new offshore producing wells entered operation in the period. Six were in the Santos Basin. Two were in Campos. Maintenance losses increased, especially in Santos. Higher capacity from newer FPSOs offset most of the impact.
The Almirante Tamandaré and Marechal Duque de Caxias platforms expanded effective capacity. Their ramp-up stabilized production.
“Even in a less favorable price environment, we delivered stable production and exceeded our targets,” Sylvia Anjos said.
The quarter closed a record year. Petrobras averaged 2.99 million boed in 2025, an increase of 11.0% from 2024 and 2.8 percentage points above guidance. Oil production alone rose 11.4% year on year. That growth reshaped the balance between domestic refining and exports.
Pre-Salt Becomes the Baseline
Búzios confirmed its dominance. Operated production in the field exceeded 1 million barrels per day in October. The Almirante Tamandaré FPSO produced close to 240,000 barrels per day in November and December. Output exceeded the initial design plateau by about 7%.
In Mero, the Alexandre de Gusmão FPSO entered operation ahead of schedule. Its capacity reaches 180,000 barrels per day.
Petrobras added 1.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent to proved reserves in 2025. The reserve replacement ratio reached 175%, the highest in a decade. The proved reserves-to-production ratio rose to 12.5 years, despite record output.
Refining, Exports and Balance
Domestic fuel sales fell 1.8% quarter on quarter in 4Q25. Diesel volumes declined 2.7%, while gasoline rose 7.0%. For the full year, domestic derivative sales still increased 1.6%, supported by diesel and jet fuel demand.
Refinery utilization averaged 89% in the quarter and 91% for the year. High-value fuels represented 68% of total output. Crude exports moved the other way. Volumes reached about 1 million barrels per day in the quarter. In 2025, average crude exports totaled 765,000 barrels per day, up 27% from 2024 and a record.
China absorbed 52% of crude exports in 4Q25. India followed with 12%, reflecting strong medium-crude demand. Gas sales fell 6.3% year on year in the quarter due to weaker non-thermal demand. Electricity sales dropped 8.2% sequentially.
For the full year, electricity sales rose 7.9%, driven by thermal dispatch. The message is clear. Petrobras now operates from a structurally higher production base. The next debate shifts to capital discipline, dividends and decarbonization. On output, the 4Q25 data settle the question.
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