By Brazil Stock Guide – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Chief Operating Officer John Waldron said Brazil remains a compelling destination for global investors, citing resilient economic fundamentals and high real interest rates. Waldron, also the bank’s non-executive president, spoke during a visit to São Paulo to mark Goldman’s 30 years of operations in the country, according to a report by Valor Econômico.
Over three decades, Goldman expanded from a three-person office to a full-service commercial and investment bank in Brazil, employing 450 people. Waldron underscored the country’s role in what he called a global “supercycle” of investment, driven by infrastructure, renewable energy, decarbonization, data centers and semiconductors linked to generative artificial intelligence.
Private capital flows
With governments heavily indebted after pandemic-era stimulus, Waldron expects private capital to drive much of the investment. “We see capital flowing into Brazil. That’s partly why our business is doing well here, because we are an intermediary of global capital that wants to enter the Brazilian market,” he said. “The economy has proven quite resilient, with reasonably high interest rates and high real returns. It’s an attractive place to allocate capital.”
The Goldman executive said local sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, though focused on three risks: fiscal policy, high interest rates and trade relations with the US. “There is cautious optimism that the fiscal situation can improve, that rates can come down, and that the relationship with the US can be strengthened,” Waldron said, after meetings with clients, investors and Brazil’s central bank chief Gabriel Galípolo.
Trade war and global ties
On the tariff war spearheaded by US President Donald Trump, Waldron refrained from direct criticism, while stressing Brazil’s ability to diversify trade partners. “Brazil has attractive resources and a very strong domestic economy. The relationship with the US is important — I wish it were stronger — but Brazil will have multiple partners. It won’t align exclusively with the US or China,” he noted.
US rates outlook and Goldman succession talk
Waldron also said he expects the Federal Reserve to resume interest-rate cuts in September, likely by 25 basis points, though market participants are debating whether reductions could be deeper. “We’re seeing weaker labor market data and inflation still relatively high but more stable,” he said.
Speculation has long swirled around Waldron as a potential successor to CEO David Solomon at Goldman Sachs. Last year, he turned down a multibillion-dollar offer from Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) to remain at the bank, Financial Times reported. Waldron downplayed succession chatter: “David has a job. I have a job. Our work is to make Goldman Sachs more valuable, more resilient, more capable of serving our clients, and that’s what we’re focused on.”
Brazil as a growth hub
Goldman doesn’t disclose detailed financial results in Brazil, but Waldron compared the operation to the bank’s hub in Singapore, calling Latin America one of its fastest-growing regions. “If you can be both local and global at the same time, those markets have been extremely successful for us — and Brazil is a great example,” he said.
Even with equity offerings stalled, he pointed to strong interest from international investors in Brazilian companies, fueling merger and acquisition activity. “If you are a global allocator of assets and believe the economy will be relatively resilient, this is a super-attractive place,” Waldron said.
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