By Brazil Stock Guide – “For me, real banking is about financing someone’s growth ambitions. Opening an account just to receive Pix is not financial inclusion.”
With that blunt statement, Bradesco vice president Cassiano Scarpelli distilled a view that has been gaining traction among Brazil’s major banks as the financial system enters a new phase of regulatory debate, digital competition and uncertainty around the persistence of high interest rates. As Bradesco’s CFO — while simultaneously influencing the bank’s finance, transformation and technology agendas — Scarpelli is pushing for a deeper rethinking of what true inclusion means.
Redefining Inclusion
According to him, the surge in digital accounts over recent years, driven by fintechs and new entrants, should not be confused with full financial inclusion. The average Brazilian now has “four or five accounts,” he notes, but that does not mean they have access to credit structures that finance durable goods, mortgages, working capital or education.
In his view, the popular digital-banking narrative misses what actually drives the economy: who takes credit risk, who finances consumption, who provides liquidity and who maintains the physical infrastructure needed for cash, ATMs and service in vulnerable regions. “It’s great that more people are opening accounts, but that is not the same as productive credit,” he says.
It was in this context that Scarpelli spoke on Tuesday (Dec. 2), during a year-end conversation with journalists — including Brazil Stock Guide — at one of Bradesco’s São Paulo offices, expanding on how digital adoption and regulatory design should be interpreted as the financial sector enters 2026.
Credit Engines
Bradesco’s outlook for 2026 is one of cautious optimism. Scarpelli expects credit to expand even amid an election year, supported by household income, a resilient labor market and a gradual decline in interest rates. His long-held thesis is that much of the Brazilian economy operates through directed lending, largely insulated from Selic-driven tightening. Rural credit, mortgages, payroll loans and other earmarked programs keep activity running even with double-digit rates — and help explain why GDP continues to grow despite a lengthy monetary squeeze.
“Rate cuts help, but their real effects only show up from the second quarter onward,” he says. He adds that Brazil is still not ready to calmly debate what its neutral real interest rate should be — whether 5%, 6% or 7% — or what the central inflation target ought to be.
Level Playing Field
Scarpelli argues that a clear regulatory asymmetry has emerged between large banks and fintechs. While digital players operate under lighter rules on capital and reserves, incumbents maintain thousands of branches, invest heavily in cybersecurity and physical security, supply around R$7 billion a day to ATMs, and absorb structural costs that, he says, “cannot simply disappear.”
“If we started paying 140% of CDI on CDBs — as some smaller firms do — the entire market would panic. It’s a lure that distorts competition,” he says.
Discussing the future of competition, he offered a sharp provocation:
“What real bank has been created in Brazil in recent years? Not a fintech — a bank.”
Brazil has seen the rise of specialized verticals and payments platforms, he says, but no new institutions capable of underwriting large-scale credit, financing agribusiness, infrastructure, energy, construction or industrial projects. “Who finances agribusiness? Who finances energy and steel? It’s the same players as always.”
He points to the private payroll-loan market as the strongest example of fair competition:
“I analyze you, I price you, and you decide. That’s pure competition — with equal rules for everyone.”
Master Case Fallout
The collapse of Banco Master — which consumed a significant share of the Deposit Guarantee Fund’s resources — triggered alarms at the central bank and among incumbents. Scarpelli argues that Brazil’s current FGC framework ends up protecting wealthy investors more than low-income clients, since only high-income depositors can spread millions across multiple institutions to maximize the R$250,000 guarantee.
He called it “a serious distortion” that one-third of the FGC’s assets were concentrated in a single institution, and said the system needs rule changes and stronger supervision. “We can’t allow that to happen again. The framework needs to be fixed,” he says.
Default Outlook
Despite high borrowing costs, Scarpelli does not see a wave of defaults that could threaten system stability. “There is no default boom on the horizon. The worst is already behind us.” He acknowledges isolated cases may still emerge — companies that took expensive loans and are now feeling the pressure — but argues the system is far better positioned to absorb restructurings. “The cases that needed to be addressed have already surfaced. The system is more solid and able to handle what comes next.”
Physical Footprint
Even as he leads Bradesco’s transformation and automation agenda, Scarpelli insists that the physical network remains essential — and not out of nostalgia. “Who is going to bring cash to remote regions of the North and Northeast if everything becomes digital?”
He highlights a point often missing in public debate:
“I put R$7 billion a day into ATMs. Low-income customers withdraw cash for free. Someone has to pay that bill.”
The pandemic accelerated digital adoption, he says, but did not eliminate the need for physical layers of protection, especially to reduce fraud, verify identity and serve communities with limited connectivity. “The post-pandemic customer is more digital, but not 100% digital. You still need layers of protection.”
Equal Rules
For Scarpelli, balancing scale, technology and territorial reach is a real stress test for competition — and a reminder that financial inclusion cannot be reduced to the number of apps on a phone.
“Good competition is when everyone plays by the same rules,” he says.
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