BNDES says finishing Angra 3 is cheaper than halting it

Brazil’s development bank estimates completing the nuclear plant would save nearly R$2 billion compared to abandoning it.

Nov 6, 2025 4:46 PM

Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil’s state-controlled nuclear utility Eletronuclear said on Wednesday (Nov. 5) that a new analysis by the Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) concluded it would be cheaper to complete the Angra 3 nuclear power plant than to abandon it. The updated financial modeling was submitted to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) on Tuesday (Nov 4), according to a statement first reported by Agência iNFRA.

The BNDES study estimates that finishing Angra 3 will cost R$23.9 billion, while abandoning the project could lead to expenses of up to R$26 billion. The matter will be reviewed by the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) later in 2025.

“The BNDES document also points out that potential financial gains — such as discounts in EPC contracts, better debt issuance conditions, and tax incentives under discussion in Congress, like the Renuclear program — could help reduce final costs,” Eletronuclear said.

The bank’s updated projections reflect delays in the council’s decision-making process, which added R$75 per MWh to the estimated tariff. The average generation cost from Angra 3 is now expected to range between R$778 and R$817 per MWh, according to the report.

In October 2024, Axia Energia — formerly part of Eletrobras (B3: ELET3) — sold its stake in Eletronuclear to Âmbar Energia, a unit of the J&F Group, controlled by Wesley and Joesley Batista, for R$535 million. The deal included the transfer of loan guarantees previously held by Axia.

Financial outlook and Q&A

Executives familiar with the matter said that BNDES’ cost model incorporates potential credit and tax improvements, which could ease financing pressure on the project. When questioned about the projected tariff increase, one official noted that the figure reflects “the cost of delay rather than the cost of construction itself.”

Analysts expect the CNPE’s final decision in 2025 to determine whether the government will resume construction or opt for a new concession structure. The study’s financial base case assumes no major deviation from current inflation and exchange rates.

If resumed, Angra 3 — located in Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro — would become Brazil’s third nuclear power plant and one of the largest in Latin America.