Ambev Chases Margins as Volumes Slide in 3Q25, says BTG

Bank expects lower beer volumes and stable margins as the Ambev prioritizes profitability over growth amid currency pressure and weak demand.

Oct 7, 2025 4:34 PM

By Brazil Stock Guide – Ambev (B3: ABEV3) is expected to report a 4% year-on-year decline in consolidated volumes for the third quarter, as higher costs and a softer macro backdrop weigh on consumption in Brazil and across Latin America. According to BTG Pactual’s earnings preview, the brewer continues to prioritize profit margins over volume growth, marking a shift from its post-pandemic strategy.

BTG projects net revenue of R$21.4 billion (-3.2% y/y), EBITDA of R$6.7 billion (-4.5% y/y) and net income of R$3.0 billion (-12.6% y/y), with a stable EBITDA margin of 31.2%. The firm warned that Ambev’s 12-month hedge policy will start to bite, as the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real in late 2024 feeds into costs during the second half of 2025.

Beer Brazil: Price Hikes, Weak Economy and Unfavorable Weather

Ambev’s Beer Brazil segment is set to contract 6.7% in volume, roughly in line with the 13.5% drop in overall industry production. Higher prices, weaker household incomes and unfavorable weather have curbed demand. BTG forecasts EBITDA of R$3.3 billion (-4% y/y) and a margin of 33.3%.

Heineken’s July price increases and the decline in Grupo Petrópolis’ output likely softened the competitive blow. ‘If we’re right,’ BTG said, ‘2025 will mark the first year since the pandemic that third-quarter volumes won’t exceed those of the first,’ signaling some normalization in beer consumption across Brazil.

Other Markets and a Strategic Crossroads

Elsewhere, results remain mixed: volumes continue to fall in Central America and the Caribbean (CAC), growth in Latin America South (LAS) has cooled, and Canada shows a modest year-on-year decline. In Brazil’s NAB (non-alcoholic beverages) segment, BTG expects the first volume drop in two years, with flat EBITDA at R$552 million.

Analysts Thiago Duarte, Bruno Henriques and Guilherme Guttilla say Ambev is at a strategic crossroads. After years oscillating between volume- and margin-driven strategies, the company now seems to seek balance. “Ambev appears to be chasing short-term profitability, but falling volumes raise questions about its long-term earnings potential,” they wrote. BTG Pactual maintained a Neutral rating and price target of R$15, versus a market price of R$11.90.