Corn Chemistry

In the 1970s, Brazil responded to the oil shock with Proálcool, then the world’s largest alternative fuels program, built on sugarcane. Half a century later, another fuel is rising: corn ethanol. Growth has been steep — 24 plants are operating, 16 are under construction, and output is projected at nearly 10 billion liters in 2025, roughly a quarter of sugarcane ethanol. The shift has been swift: in 2017 there was only one corn-dedicated plant, producing about 500 million liters a year.

The epicenter of this boom is the Center-West, but production is now crossing the country toward the Northeast, diluting concentration by 2028. Flex plants — able to process both cane and corn — smooth seasonality and give the system more elasticity, something absent in the original sugarcane surge. Each new plant doubles as a protein factory. Co-products such as DDG and DDGS — dried distillers’ grains, a high-protein residue from ethanol production — feed cattle, pigs and poultry. In practice, corn turns into both ethanol and feed, blending energy and protein into one chain.

RenovaBio, Brazil’s federal decarbonization program, gave the cycle momentum. The program brought predictability, set decarbonization targets and, above all, created CBIOs — tradable credits that add revenue for certified producers. That was enough to turn an incipient sector into a platform for billion-dollar investment, giving corn ethanol a green seal that boosts its competitiveness at home and abroad. The next step is aviation: alcohol-to-jet technology could turn corn ethanol into sustainable fuel for airlines, opening a premium global market.

The risk now lies in diplomacy. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian ethanol — mainly sugarcane, whose negligible exports go mostly to California’s RFS and LCFS decarbonization programs — and is pressing Lula to cut Brazil’s 18% duty on U.S. fuel. US president even said there was “chemistry” with Lula. But corn fuel now powers cars, livestock and geopolitics — and Brasília shows little inclination to dilute tariffs just for chemistry with Trump.