# Vale lifts long-term metals outlook and advances copper venture with Glencore

*Brazilian miner raises production guidance through 2035 and accelerates a brownfield copper project in Canada.*

- Published: 2025-12-02
- Updated: 2025-12-03
- Section: Insights
- Tags: Base Metals, blue chip, Brazil mining, Copper, Critical Minerals, Glencore, iron ore, Nickel, Production Guidance, Sudbury Basin, VALE
- URL: https://brazilstockguide.com/insights/vale-metals-guidance-sudbury-copper-jv-2035/

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**By Brazil Stock Guide –** **Vale (VALE3, NYSE: VALE)** updated its long-term projections for iron ore, copper and nickel, signaling steadier volumes, tighter cost control and a more predictable legacy-liability path. The miner now expects **~360 Mt of iron ore in 2030**, **420–500 kt of copper**, and **210–250 kt of nickel**, supported by annual capex between **US$ 5.4 billion and US$ 5.7 billion**.

### Stronger guidance through 2035

Vale sees **~335 Mt of iron ore in 2025**, maintaining **335–345 Mt in 2026**. Copper output should rise from **~370 kt in 2025** to **~700 kt by 2035**, while nickel stays in the **175–200 kt** range through 2026. The company targets a lower iron-ore C1 cash cost of **US$ 20–21.5/t** in 2026, reinforcing its efficiency strategy.

Maintenance spending continues to dominate capex, and growth investment should remain near **US$ 1.1 billion** per year. Cash outflows tied to Brumadinho, Mariana and dam decharacterization are set to decline from **US$ 4.2 billion in 2025** to **US$ 2.6 billion in 2026**, falling below **US$ 1 billion** annually after 2029.

### New copper push in Canada

Subsidiary **Vale Base Metals** signed an agreement with **Glencore** to evaluate an integrated development of copper deposits in the Sudbury Basin. The project would use Glencore’s existing Nickel Rim South shaft and could produce **880,000 tonnes of copper** over **21 years**, with an estimated capital cost of **US$ 1.6–2.0 billion**.

The brownfield expansion reflects Sudbury’s polymetallic profile: in addition to copper, the partners expect production of nickel, cobalt, gold and PGMs. Detailed engineering, permitting and consultation are planned for 2026, with a final investment decision targeted for the **first half of 2027**.

The move underscores Vale’s effort to rebuild valuation multiples and rebalance its portfolio toward energy-transition metals. A successful Sudbury project would mark Vale’s most significant copper expansion in over a decade and help strengthen its position in global critical-minerals supply chains. At the same time, declining legacy-related outflows and stable iron-ore volumes may support more predictable free-cash-flow generation.

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Source: Brazil Stock Guide, https://brazilstockguide.com/insights/vale-metals-guidance-sudbury-copper-jv-2035/