Brazil’s banking sector has found a new fixation: artificial intelligence. After a decade spent arguing over fees, delinquency cycles and “digital journeys,” institutions now concede that the real battle is fought in the algorithm. And despite the uniformly upbeat tone of 3Q25 earnings calls, the race is anything but even — some players are already running at full stride; others are still stretching on the sidelines.
The bar has shifted because the business model has shifted. The traditional giants are trying to reverse years of legacy infrastructure with promises of hyperpersonalization, rebuilt-from-scratch apps and “AI-first” processes. It looks impressive on PowerPoint and, to some extent, works in practice. But listening to the native fintechs makes it clear who truly operates AI at a foundational level. Nubank openly discusses proprietary models, fully automated risk engines and client interactions scanned, classified and optimized by systems that never rest. XP, in turn, is testing a deeper pivot: using AI to redesign the advisory experience itself, scaling high-end financial planning for clients who once received little more than a templated PDF.
The counterargument is predictable but unavoidable: large banks have reach, capital and regulatory ballast — advantages that Nubank, XP and other fintechs cannot yet replicate at comparable depth. And there is a quieter truth that no executive voices on a call: AI also fails, and it fails fast. In institutions where a single bug can trigger chaos, or a miscalibrated allocation can affect millions, execution cannot follow the rhythm of hype. The incumbents’ caution has logic, even if it costs time.
What is undeniable is that the industry is finally moving beyond the “digital” era and into the predictive one. Whoever controls the model controls the client; whoever controls the client controls the spread. The next competitive asymmetry won’t be branch footprint or app design — it will be computational capacity. And at the starting line of this new race, a few institutions have already surged ahead.
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